Liberals, Tories neck-and-neck in latest Mainstreet poll – iPolitics

The Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat just two and a half months out from election day, a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics suggests.

In the firm’s latest phone survey, 34.5 per cent of leaning and decided respondents said they’d vote for the Liberals if the election were today, compared to 34.1 per cent who opted for the Conservatives. The Greens and NDP were tied at 11.1 per cent apiece, while the Bloc Québécois, which only runs candidates in Quebec, had 4.4 per cent nationally. The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) drew 3.3 per cent of support.

The race between the Tories and Liberals is a dead tie when including undecided voters, with both parties grabbing 30.4 per cent of support. Undecided was the next most popular option at 12.2 per cent, followed by the NDP (9.6), Green Party (9.5), Bloc (3.9), PPC (2.8) and unspecified other party (1.3).

The margin of error of the 2,463-person survey, conducted between July 30-31, is plus or minus 1.97 percentage points and is considered accurate 19 times out of 20, according to Mainstreet.

Compared to the firm’s last national survey, the Liberals are down among decided and leaning voters by half a percentage point, while the Conservatives are up by 0.9 percentage points. The Greens and NDP have enjoyed near identical upticks in support, 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, though the Bloc (0.1) and PPC (1.3) are down.

“The changes are minor from last month’s survey, but they point to a tighter race than was
the case in July,” Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet, said in a statement.

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If the numbers proved accurate come election day, Maggi said the Liberals would win a “plurality of seats,” though it’s difficult to predict the size of their haul.

“It could be a very narrow majority or a very substantial minority where the Liberals would be short of a majority by a few seats, like what happened to their Ontario cousins in 2011,” he said.

Regionally, the Liberals are ahead in Ontario among decided and leaning voters, with 43.2 per cent support compared to 30.5 for the Tories, 12.5 for the NDP, 9.8 for the Greens and 2.8 for the PPC. In Quebec, the Liberals lead with 34.5 per cent, while the Conservatives are second with 23.3, followed by the Bloc (18.6), NDP (9.3), Greens (8.9) and PPC (4.4).

The race is far closer in the Atlantic provinces, with the Liberals leading the Tories by a 38.6-36.1 margin, with the Greens a distant third at 13.1 per cent. In B.C., the Conservatives are up on the Liberals 33.8-26.3, while the Green Party is close behind at 21 per cent and the NDP trails all three with 14.1 per cent.

In Alberta and the Prairies, the Conservatives are easily outpacing their rivals, grabbing over 50 per cent of support. In Alberta, the Tories lead the Liberals 56.4-20.3, followed by the Greens (9.7), NDP (8.4) and PPC (2.9). In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives are up on the Liberals by a 54.1-19.9 margin, with the NDP following at 11.7 per cent, and the Greens (6.7) and PPC (3) in the rear.

But since the sample sizes are smaller, the margins of error for the regional breakdowns are larger. For Atlantic Canada, it stands at plus or minus 7.98 percentage points, while in the Prairies it’s 7.65, compared to 6.75 for Alberta and 5.47 for B.C. For Ontario and Quebec, the margins are 3.59 and 3.33, respectively.

Compared to Mainstreet’s last poll, Maggi said the Liberals have grown their lead in Ontario but have fallen further behind in B.C. and their lead over the Tories in Atlantic Canada is well within the margin of error.

“If these numbers hold, the Liberals would pick up seats in Ontario but lose quite a few in B.C. and the Maritimes,” he added.

By age group, the Liberals hold leads within the margin of error among 18-35 years old and seniors (65 plus), while the Conservatives are narrowly ahead (but again within the margin of error) when it comes to 35-49 year olds and 50-64 year olds.

The Liberals are leading the Tories among women by a 37.5-29.3 margin, while the Conservatives are up on the governing Grits among men 39-31.4.

This content was originally published here.

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